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At first, the former US president appeared to take a firm approach regarding Ukraine. After issuing threats of "significant ramifications" in August should Putin persisted blocking peace talks, Trump eventually enacted considerable penalties on Russia's two largest oil companies, these major energy companies. This action seriously hindered the Russian leader's capability to fund his aggression in the region.

Yet, with his recently unveiled comprehensive peace proposal for Ukraine, that was developed by American and Russian representatives without Ukrainian or EU involvement, Trump has apparently gone back to his Russia-friendly position.

Benefiting Aggression

Trump's initiative would essentially favor the Russian leader for occupying a sovereign nation while placing Ukraine's political freedom in peril. Despite ringing statements that "Ukraine's autonomy will be confirmed", significant aspects of the plan in reality undermine that same autonomy. This constitutes a Kremlin dream would certainly be a catastrophe for the nation.

Showing his real-estate past, Trump continues to view the Ukrainian conflict as a mere border issue, like handing Putin a portion of Ukraine's soil will please the ruler. Yet, Russia's war is not simply about dominating a destroyed swath of industrial-devastated area in Ukraine's east. It is about Ukraine's democratic governance – and Putin's obvious desire to destroy it so it ceases to acts as an appealing example for the Russian citizens of the responsible governance that his increasing authoritarian rule denies them.

Land Concessions

Although freezing in status the currently split Ukrainian provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the initiative would require the nation to surrender all of Donetsk region. Aside from benefiting Russia with territory that its troops have been failed to occupy in over a lengthy period of warfare, this giveaway would make Ukraine's defenses dangerously weakened.

The area is the site of Ukraine's much-vaunted "stronghold system", the well-established military defenses that represent a essential obstacle to Russian advances. Trump would have Ukraine surrender these fortifications, giving Russian forces a clear route to the capital in case he eventually decide to renew the conflict.

Armed Forces Reductions

Then, in a action that would enable additional hostilities simpler for the Russian military, Trump would mandate Ukraine to cut the scale of its armed forces from their current 800,000 to 850,000 soldiers to a limit of this lower number. Importantly, the initiative sets no similar restrictions on the invading army.

Seemingly as a gesture to Russia's efforts to portray the nation's legitimate government as extremists, Trump's plan states: "All extremist doctrine and activities must be rejected and forbidden." Apparently to emphasize this element, it demands that "Ukraine will hold elections in three months" of a truce. Meanwhile, the proposal imposes no requirement that the Russian leader endanger his regime by conducting votes in his own country.

Defense Assurances

To be sure, the proposal makes Russia commit not to "invade other states" and to "incorporate in regulation its position of non-violence towards Europe and Ukraine". But taking into account that the Russian leadership has violated equivalent accords in the previous instances – including the 1994 agreement, in which Russia pledged to recognize the nation's territorial integrity in return for surrendering its former Soviet nuclear arsenal, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia promised to a halt in fighting and a restoration of seized areas in the region to Ukrainian control – why should anyone believe Putin on this occasion?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on external protection assurances. While the proposal warns of a "strong joint defense action" if Russia resume its invasion, and includes that "Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees", the details range from vague to troubling. The initiative would not just deny Ukraine Nato membership but also prohibit member states from positioning forces on Ukraine's soil, thus precluding the reassurance force, presumptively led by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to deter Putin from restoring his weakened forces, restocking, and reinvading.

Global Concern

A separate parallel deal reportedly would provide the nation with a similar to NATO protection assurance, in which any future "major, planned, and sustained military assault" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "will be treated as an assault endangering the tranquility of the transatlantic community." This indicates a defense action. But different from a strong Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's primary protection against additional hostilities – the success of the side agreement would hinge on the commitment of alliance members, such as Trump, to act through arms to Putin's hostilities, something they have {not