It was two months ago when the young forward found himself on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager scolded him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if his displays were a symptom or the reason for the team's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, however, the sideline response was decidedly more positive. When the England international swept in his second to reclaim his side's advantage, the boss discarded his jacket, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. Villa were on their way to a 10th successive win and despite not winning their opening six fixtures, now sit a mere three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Challengers?
This is a particularly tough proposition to answer. Past precedent, a general sense of Villa, indicates otherwise. Moreover, their performances haven't been entirely convincing in many games, even as the wins have accumulated.
According to Opta, twice all season have Villa posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team who have strung together a ten-match winning streak, they appear weirdly vulnerable – however currently the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and wait for Rogers to rescue them with a couple of precise efforts. This occurred away to Leeds, it transpired in London, and once more versus Manchester United.
The initial strike stemmed from a brilliant finish, bent just inside the post from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, Manchester United registered more shots and more shots on target. They have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge they have to face in the near future. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling the ball past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists another reality where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures might still find their top level.
- The main striker might resume finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he resembled in Germany.
- The defensive duo will eventually return from injury, fortifying a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the seeds for a sustained push, but they surely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely back in October, few could imagine the young forward by the end of the year would be leading a hunt for the title and appearing as a vital Three Lions star.
This winning streak should be enjoyed for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As Rogers positioned himself before the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
