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Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, though experts suggest PVV is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and formed a four-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June amid a dispute concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a election period focused on issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party one MP. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of division ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from power. However, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations may require months, analysts suggest that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is expected soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.