Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
